Blu-Ray Disc is the Victor!

In February, Toshiba announced that June would be the last month of production for their HD DVD drives, signaling the end to the Blu-Ray Disc (BD)- HD DVD format war. What was shaping up to be a long drawn out affair ended abruptly, and I have to say that I was a little —surprised by the announcement. Not because BD is an inferior product to HD DVD, but because I had come to the conclusion that both formats would survive.

Having spent some time reviewing both formats, it seemed logical to me that BD and HD DVD could co-exist. The rationale for my co-existence theory was simple: the entry barrier for HD DVD, for both manufacturers and content owners, is considerably lower then that of BD. That alone should have been enough to have propelled HD DVD to victory, vanquishing BD instead of the other way around. But, it just wasn"t enough to get the job done. Sony had committed so much time and money to BD that the possibility of them pulling the plug was very remote. And, unlike the Betamax format war, Sony was in the content driver's seat this time around, with ownership in Columbia Pictures, and BD drives shipping with every Sony PS3.

A look at the economics behind BD and HD DVD paints the picture. The cost of entry into the BD world is very high for stake holders compared with HD DVD. For disc replicators, the cost to come to the BD dance runs into the millions, and that just gets you in the door. Replicators still have to struggle with a very complicated manufacturing process with yields only in the high 60% range. On the other hand, the transition to HD DVD for most disc replicators was a simple upgrade to existing replication lines, with a manufacturing process very similar to DVDs. Content owners who want to get into the BD game don"t fare much better. The entry barrier is equally as high; $25K - $100K to author the title; add to that another few thousand for AACS licensing; and another few thousand for mastering fees. It adds up quickly, and you still haven"t replicated any discs. That'll cost you around $2.50/unit in quantities of 2500 — double what you would pay to have an HD DVD manufactured. That"s a big nut to crack when you're considering your ROI.

That"s why I thought both formats would survive: BD, simply because Sony was never going to pull the plug; and HD DVD to fill the HD format roll for the every-day man. It certainly seems to leave the door open for another format to challenge BD.

To BD or not? From Paragon"s perspective, the answer is yes. It's the only HD optical disc format, and we are currently manufacturing titles for our clients. From a content owner's standpoint it's simply going to come down to economics. If you have an HD title that would provide adequate returns, then BD is the choice, otherwise DVD is still king!

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